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  murdochmacdonald3 months ago

  Eminent financial commentator Nick Parsons delivered a brilliant, comprehensive and brutally frank presentation about the present and future state of the UK economy in a global context, in which he told it as it is and pulled no punches.

  Starting his presentation to the Elite Ayrshire Business Circle, Nick warned that he was no ray of sunshine, and kicked off by stating quite unequivocally that we are entering a new era, and that economically speaking, the good times are definitely over.

  Addressing the question as to whether the UK is facing a recession, Nick pointed out that the answer depends upon how you define recession.

  However, using the generally accepted definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, then the answer is probably no, but the question is largely academic, as it is going to feel like a recession.

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  murdochmacdonald3 months ago

  Money is scarce - it is harder to get finance, and if you can get it, the cost of it has gone up. Although the official UK interest rates have fallen, the actual rates that people and businesses have to pay have risen, due to the difficulties being experienced in the money markets at the present time.

  House prices are falling, and will continue to fall. Retail sales - which follow house prices - will collapse, and inflation and unemployment will increase. Inflation will probably peak towards the end of the year at around 4.2%, and then fall sharply back to, or below the 2% target during next year.

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